Durbin in Trouble? Latest YouGov Poll Indicates Maybe

July 30, 2014 | Filed under: Elections | Posted by: Staff Blogger

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Durbin’s 8-point lead over Oberweis narrows to just 3 points among strong supporters in YouGov poll.

US Sen. Dick Durbin has been heavily favored to win reelection since his previous election six years ago, but the recent CBS/NYT/YouGov poll shows his favored status may be in trouble.

Over the weekend, YouGov canvassed every US Senate race in an effort to gauge the likelihood Republicans can take over the Senate after the November 4 elections. While pundits spent most of their time examining races where just two percent separated the candidates, such as Michigan’s race between Terry Lynn Land (R-Byron Center) and Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills). In the polling done for Illinois, Durbin (D-Springfield) is seen with an eight-point lead over State Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) at 51-43 percent, prompting pundits like Stuart Rothenberg to handicap the race as a Likely Democrat. However, when looking at the strong support for the two candidates, the numbers tell a different story.

The crosstabs of the polling done show Durbin with just a three-point lead among strong supporters (39-36 percent). The all-important independent voters say they are backing Oberweis at a 50-34 percent margin. Breaking the votes down among gender and age: more men back the dairy magnate at 47-41 percent, with a 43-36 percent advantage from strong supporters. Durbin has the support among women (54-34 percent) and younger voters, those aged 18-29 say they are supporting the incumbent 57-39 percent while 30-39 year old voters intend to vote for him by a 66-32 percent margin.

However, among the older voters, an age group who votes more reliably during midterm elections, Durbin’s strong support narrows to just a one-point advantage, well within the margin of error (which is 2 percent for this poll), among 40-49 year old voters. Oberweis trails Durbin by four points (47-43 percent for Durbin) among that age group and leads in the over-50 category by a comfortable 55-42 percent margin.

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn (seen here in 2010) trails challenger Bruce Rauner in recent polling (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Meanwhile, embattled Gov. Pat Quinn (D-Chicago) continues to see his prospects for reelection dwindle. In the same polling, Quinn trails investor Bruce Rauner (R-Winnetka) with those polled favoring the challenger 46-43 percent. Among strong supporters, Rauner enjoys a 42-37 percent lead. Young voters still trend towards the Democrat governor, who has recently come under fire for his controversial anti-violence program that was shut down after spending millions of dollars with little to show for it.

Independents say they support Rauner at 59-27 percent, as do men at 53-37 percent. Quinn has the lead among women, 48-39 percent, and younger voters (55-29 percent for those aged 18-29 years and 50-36 percent for those 30-39). Rauner, though, still has the advantage over the larger voting population for midterms at 53-39 percent for 40-49 year olds and 60-35 perecnt for those over 50.

YouGov is one of just a number of polls that have come out for Rauner in recent months. The Where America Stands poll, commissioned for the Illinois Mirror, in mid-May had Rauner up 18 points over Quinn and the recent We Ask America poll, which is backed by the Illinois Manufacturers Association, has Quinn trailing his challenger by 14 points.